Forecasting the Future of Rice Fields in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta
A variety of different land cover seen during the field work completed in summer of 2019.
Vietnam’s Mekong Delta is one of the world’s most important regions for rice production. Rice farming is not just central to local diets and livelihoods — it also helps feed millions of people around the globe. But this iconic landscape is under growing pressure. Economic shifts, evolving government policies, and the rapid growth of towns and infrastructure are all changing how land is used.
Curious about what these forces could mean for the future, a team of international researchers with the NASA Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) program set out to explore how agriculture in one rural province, Dong Thap, might look over the next ten years. Their findings were recently published in a book chapter, with Keelin Haynes — who was a graduate student at Miami University during the study and is now the Communications Coordinator with NASA Harvest — serving as the lead author.
Keelin’s approach combined advanced satellite data analysis with extensive on-the-ground fieldwork. Using high-resolution imagery from 2007 and 2017, he performed advanced change detection methods to map how fields and towns had already transformed over time. But he recognized that satellite data alone couldn’t capture the human stories and local decision-making shaping these landscapes. So over the course of a month traveling through Dong Thap’s countryside with a local contact, often on foot and visiting farmers in their homes, he gathered firsthand insights into how shifting markets, cultural traditions, and local policies were influencing choices on the land. By weaving together these local perspectives with sophisticated geospatial models, the study created an integrated picture of how the province might evolve under different “what-if” scenarios.
The results were striking. No matter which scenario played out — whether driven by stronger economic incentives, new policy shifts, or enduring cultural ties to rice — the models predicted that rice paddies in Dong Thap would likely decline somewhat over the coming years. More land could be converted to fruit orchards, vegetable farming, aquaculture, or urban development. Yet even with these changes, rice would continue to dominate the landscape, a testament to its deep roots in local life.
“What really stood out was how resilient rice farming is in Dong Thap,” said Keelin Haynes. “Even under strong economic and policy shifts pushing farmers toward other crops or urban uses, rice is expected to remain a centerpiece of the province’s culture and economy.”
This kind of research is valuable far beyond Vietnam. It shows how combining very different sources of information, from remote-sensing satellites to conversations around kitchen tables, can produce richer and more realistic forecasts. These insights are critical for communities and decision-makers as they plan how to safeguard food security, protect rural livelihoods, and guide sustainable growth.
Today, Keelin is bringing these skills and perspectives to NASA Harvest, where he helps communicate how advanced science and satellite data are supporting farmers and improving agricultural decision-making around the world.
