Forecasting the Future of Rice Fields in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta

A variety of different land cover seen during the field work completed in summer of 2019.

Vietnam’s Mekong Delta produces more than half of the country’s rice, making it vital to both national food systems and global exports. While rice farming has long been central to daily life and livelihoods in the region, that balance is under growing pressure. The rapid expansion of towns and infrastructure, combined with shifting economic incentives and evolving government policies, is transforming how land is used.

To better understand how these forces could reshape agriculture in the future, an international research team supported by NASA's Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) program examined how agriculture in Dong Thap Province might change over the next decade. Their findings were recently published in a book chapter, co-authored by Keelin Haynes, who was a graduate student during the study and is now the Communications Lead with NASA Harvest.

Keelin’s approach blended advanced satellite analysis with extensive fieldwork on the ground. To understand how the region had changed over time, he applied change detection methods to high-resolution satellite imagery from 2007 and 2017, tracking shifts in land cover across towns, fields, and waterways.

But satellite data alone couldn’t tell the whole story. To uncover the human decisions driving those changes, Keelin spent a month in Dong Thap Province, traveling with a local contact, often on foot, and visiting farmers in their homes. Through dozens of conversations with farmers, the research team gained firsthand insight into how cultural traditions, shifting markets, and local policies were shaping land use. Those local perspectives were then integrated with geospatial data to build a clearer understanding of how agriculture in the province might evolve under different "what-if" scenarios. While not predictive, the model offered a structured way to explore plausible futures based on current trends and local insights.

The projections revealed consistent trends across scenarios, even amid uncertainty. In several modeled scenarios driven by stronger economic incentives, new policy shifts, or enduring cultural ties to rice, paddy area in Dong Thap was projected to decline modestly over the coming years. Depending on the pathway, more land could shift toward fruit orchards, vegetable farming, aquaculture, or urban development. Yet even with these changes, rice was expected to remain the most widespread crop, underscoring its long-standing importance to the region’s daily life and economy.

“What really stood out was how resilient rice farming is in Dong Thap,” said Keelin. “Even under strong economic and policy shifts pushing farmers toward other crops or urban uses, rice is expected to remain a centerpiece of the province’s culture and economy.”

As with any modeling effort, the scenarios are simplifications of a complex reality. Future land use will depend on unpredictable factors such as climate variability, evolving policy decisions, and shifting trade dynamics that no model can fully anticipate. Still, the approach helps illuminate a range of possible outcomes and supports more informed planning.

Although grounded in Vietnam, the approach has broader value. Combining satellite observations with local knowledge provides a more complete understanding of land-use change than either source alone. That perspective can help planners and decision-makers better understand how agricultural landscapes may respond to future social, economic, and environmental change.

 Today, Keelin serves as Communications Lead with NASA Harvest, where he works closely with researchers to communicate Earth observation science and its applications for agricultural monitoring and food security.